A economia brasileira deve apresentar queda forte no primeiro semestre deste ano, seguida de recuperação gradual a partir do terceiro trimestre. Análise é do Banco Central (BC) no boletim do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom).
A economia brasileira deve apresentar queda forte no primeiro semestre deste ano, seguida de recuperação gradual a partir do terceiro trimestre. A previsão é do Banco Central (BC), que divulgou hoje (23), em Brasília, a ata da última reunião do Comitê de Política Monetária (Copom). Realizada na semana passada, o Copom reduziu a taxa básica de juros, a Selic, em 0,75 ponto percentual para 2,25% ao ano.
Segundo a ata, os membros do Copom (formado pela diretoria do BC) avaliaram que os dados relativos ao segundo trimestre corroboram a perspectiva de forte contração do PIB no período e sugerem que a atividade atingiu o seu menor patamar em Abril, havendo recuperação apenas parcial em Maio e Junho.
“O Copom considera uma queda forte do PIB na primeira metade deste ano, seguida de uma recuperação gradual a partir do terceiro trimestre“,diz o documento.
Inflação
Para o Copom, a pandemia do vírus chinês fará a economia brasileira desinflacionar. O grupo avalia que um dos impactos da pandemia é a desinflação associado ao aumento do nível de ociosidade da economia.
“A elevação abrupta da incerteza sobre a economia deve resultar em aumento da poupança precaucional e consequente redução significativa da demanda agregada“, acrescentou a ata de reunião.
Para 2020, o Conselho Monetário Nacional (CMN) estabeleceu meta de inflação de 4%, com margem de tolerância de 1,5 ponto percentual.
Contudo, a projeção do Copom é que inflação pelo IPCA termine este ano em 2%, chegando a 3,2% em 2021. Neste cenário, considera-se que a Selic encerrará 2020 em 2,25% ao ano e se elevará até 3% ao ano em 2021. A taxa de câmbio prevista é de R$4,95.
Com informações de: Agência Brasil.
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